US Household Financial Outlook Deteriorates; Short-Term Inflation Expectations Decline - Forex Factory

Jay Hatfield forecasts Fed reform and flexible inflation targets under Kevin Warsh  Fox Business

UBS Warns America's Restaurants Locked In "Difficult Cycle" As Tax-Refund Sugar-High Fades There is certainly a growing consensus on Wall Street that the tax-refund sugar high is fading just as consumers' financial profiles deteriorate. The latest read-through comes from UBS analyst Dennis Geiger, the bank's U.S. restaurants equity research analyst, who warns that a toxic cocktail of macro pressures is likely to crimp restaurant spending in the second half of the year. Geiger warned in a note that elevated gas prices at the pump appear to be offsetting tax-rebate benefits, while lower-income, younger, and Hispanic consumers remain among some of the weakest demand cohorts. "Challenged traffic and sales trends likely largely reflect depressed consumer sentiment across several cohorts, elevated gas prices, and other macro headwinds," the analyst said, adding, "We are more cautious on restaurant industry trends into 2H26, assuming near-term headwinds persist, rebate check benefits fade, and risk that gas prices stay elevated." He said that margin pressure will likely persist for restaurants through summer and into fall as commodity inflation remains a problem. Despite the negative backdrop, he pointed out valuations for restaurant stocks look attractive: Despite challenged fundamentals, negative investor sentiment, and valuation pressure, we believe restaurants are in a difficult cycle currently, rather than a longer-term structurally challenged position. Valuations appear attractive relative to hi

Nearly half of Americans say they're worse off financially than a year ago, NY Fed finds  CBS News

The Odds of a Fed Rate Hike Passed 50% This Weekend. Is the Trump and Warsh Honeymoon Over Already?  24/7 Wall St.

Fed faces policy crossroads as inflation data looms  MSN

Pentagon Names Alibaba, Baidu, And BYD In Updated Chinese Military Companies List As DoD Contracting Bans Loom The Department of Defense has filed a major update to its official list of "Chinese military companies" operating in the United States, formally naming or reaffirming high-profile firms including Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, BGI Group, and Autel as companies linked to Beijing's military-civil fusion strategy. The notice, filed on Monday and scheduled for Federal Register publication on June 10, comes just weeks before new restrictions on Department of Defense contracting with listed entities take effect on June 30. The companies are alleged to have ownership or ties to SASAC (State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission), affiliations with MIIT (Ministry of Industry and Information Technology), PLA connections, support from China's "