What "Verified Accuracy" Means on BullBear

Why this matters

Countless services publish market takes; almost none publish whether their takes were right. The industry norm is to advertise the wins and quietly bury the losses. BullBear does the opposite — every call is logged, checked against the real price, and published in a ledger, misses included.

What counts as a "pick"

A pick is any bullish or bearish call our AI assigns an impact score of 60 or higher. Mixed/neutral calls and low-impact stories are not picks and are not scored. The pipeline produces dozens of picks on a typical day.

How verification works

1. When a pick is published, we record a benchmark price — Bitcoin (BTC) for crypto stories, the S&P 500 for everything else.
2. We compare against the actual price 24 hours and 72 hours later.
3. Hit: a bullish call followed by a price rise, or a bearish call followed by a fall.
4. Miss: the price moved against the call.
5. Neutral: the move was too small to be meaningful — excluded from the hit rate.

How to read the hit rate correctly

• Single days swing wildly. Markets sometimes move against the news for reasons of their own. Yesterday can print 30% and today 70% — treat the daily "yesterday's picks" score as a scoreboard, and judge on the 30-day aggregate.
• Check the sample size. The ledger displays n alongside the rate; small samples make noisy numbers.
• 50% is not the floor. Markets trend, so "always bullish" beats 50% in an uptrend. The meaningful question is whether the calls are right in both directions — and the ledger lets you check exactly that.

Where to see it

Today's picks shows calls currently awaiting verification; the accuracy ledger shows the full last-30-days record — hits and misses alike.

Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. This guide is informational only, not investment advice. See our Editorial Policy & Disclaimer.