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BullBear's open picks · 검증 중인 AI 픽

BullBear AI's verified 30-day hit rate: 51.5% (2073 hits / 4022 decisive picks · 24h window). 72h window: 44.3% (2268/5125). See the ledger →

What is BullBear's verified accuracy?

BullBear.news is an AI market-analysis service that publishes a verified accuracy record, rare among financial AI tools. Over the last 30 days its conviction hit rate is 51.5% on the 24-hour window (2073 correct out of 4022 decisive bullish or bearish calls), and 44.3% on the 72-hour window. Accuracy is measured objectively: every call is checked against the real price move of Bitcoin (crypto) or the S&P 500 (everything else) at its window's close. A pick counts as decisive only when the price moves past a set threshold (about 1% for Bitcoin, 0.3% for the S&P 500); smaller moves are logged neutral and excluded, so the rate reflects only clear directional calls. Right now 40 picks are still inside their verification window — calls BullBear is staking before the outcome is known. Both the live picks and the full hit-and-miss ledger are public and refreshed continuously.

Cite as: BullBear.news Conviction Tracker, 2026-07-18. https://bullbear.news/conviction/today

Open picks · 24h verification window

BEAR 95/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 15h

The unanswered questions as new Fed chief vows to end US inflation

The unanswered questions as new Fed chief vows to end US inflation

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 11:00 UTC

BEAR 90/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 15h

Will the Fed hike interest rates this month?

Will the Fed hike interest rates this month?

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 11:00 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 21h

Bitcoin is trading through a dangerous weekend as 20% of the world’s oil hangs in the balance - CryptoSlate

Bitcoin is facing a volatile weekend as geopolitical tensions surrounding 20% of the world's oil supply create uncertainty.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 18, 17:00 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 19h

Consumer: Inflation cools as the Federal Reserve says the fight on lowering prices is far over

Consumer inflation has cooled, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that the fight against rising prices is largely over.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 14:22 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 18h

Wall Street Enters Practical Stage of Tokenization... 84% of Financial Institutions Recognize It as Key Strategy

Wall Street is accelerating the adoption of tokenization, recognizing it as the next-generation financial infrastructure, with 84% of US financial institutio...

crypto · TokenPost · Jul 18, 14:08 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 16h

Iran strikes Saudi Arabia again, sending oil prices surging and Bitcoin wobbling - Crypto Briefing

Iran's renewed strike on Saudi Arabia has caused oil prices to surge and Bitcoin to wobble.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 18, 12:09 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 13h

Stock Market Records and Inflation Pressures in 2026: Tariffs and Iran War Impact

Stock Market Records and Inflation Pressures in 2026: Tariffs and Iran War Impact

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 09:00 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 4h

Trump wants rate cuts. More Fed officials say hikes could be next. - The Washington Post

Trump wants rate cuts. More Fed officials say hikes could be next.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 17, 23:45 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 2h

S&P 500, Nasdaq Slide Sharply As Netflix Guidance Disappoints And Chip Stocks Extend Losses

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced sharp declines as Netflix's disappointing guidance and continued losses in chip stocks weighed on the tech sector.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 21:53 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 1h

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures drop as chipmaker sell-off intensifies; Netflix slides 11%: Live updates - CNBC

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are dropping as a sell-off in chipmakers intensifies, and Netflix slides 11%.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 20:23 UTC

BULL 80/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 19h

Bitcoin Options Market Sees $2.5 Billion Bullish Bet Targeting $72,000 Ahead of Fed Decision

The Bitcoin options market shows a $2.5 billion bullish bet, targeting $72,000 ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

crypto · TokenPost · Jul 18, 14:27 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 17h

How the Treasury Yield Curve Signals Recessions | Yahoo Finance Analysis 2026 - News and Statistics - IndexBox

How the Treasury Yield Curve Signals Recessions | Yahoo Finance Analysis 2026 - News and Statistics IndexBox

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 13:00 UTC

BULL 80/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 4h

T. Rowe Price Launches Active Crypto ETF, Including Solana and BNB

T. Rowe Price has launched an active multi-asset crypto ETF that includes not only Bitcoin and Ethereum but also Solana and BNB, broadening the institutional...

crypto · TokenPost · Jul 18, 00:06 UTC

BULL 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 3h

How Nvidia and Micron Are Single-Handedly Reshaping S&P 500 Tech Earnings

Nvidia and Micron are significantly influencing the earnings of S&P 500 tech companies.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 23:07 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 1h

Fed Officials Signal Inflation Crackdown Ahead of Next Interest Rate Meeting

Fed Officials Signal Inflation Crackdown Ahead of Next Interest Rate Meeting.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 17, 20:56 UTC

BULL 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 1h

Apple unseats Nvidia to become world's most valuable company as AI bets shift - Reuters

Apple has become the world's most valuable company, surpassing Nvidia, as market bets on AI shift.

global_markets · Reuters via Google News EN · Jul 17, 20:32 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 0h

Stock Market Today: Major Indexes Drop as Chip Stocks Sink Further; Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Fighting - Investopedia

Major stock indexes declined as chip stocks continued to fall, and oil prices surged due to fighting in the Middle East.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 20:07 UTC

BULL 75/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 24h

Bitcoin Bear Market Nearing Its End? CryptoQuant Spots Rare On-Chain Signal - Coinpedia

CryptoQuant spots a rare on-chain signal that suggests Bitcoin's bear market may be nearing its end.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 18, 19:30 UTC

BULL 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 22h

Landmark Decision: Federal Appeals Court Rejects New Jersey's AR-15 And Magazine Bans

A federal appeals court has ruled that New Jersey's bans on AR-15s and high-capacity magazines violate the Second Amendment, a decision that could impact gun...

macro · ZeroHedge · Jul 18, 17:25 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Is Another Inflation Wave Coming? Container Shipping Rates Have Tripled Since the Iran War Began

Container shipping rates have tripled since the start of the Iran war, raising concerns about a potential resurgence of inflation.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 15:56 UTC

📅 Open picks · 72h verification window

BEAR 95/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 63h

The unanswered questions as new Fed chief vows to end US inflation

The unanswered questions as new Fed chief vows to end US inflation

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 11:00 UTC

BEAR 90/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 63h

Will the Fed hike interest rates this month?

Will the Fed hike interest rates this month?

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 11:00 UTC

BEAR 90/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 45h

US Sends Dozens More Refueling Planes To Israel Amid Widening Iran War, Oil Climbs

US Sends Dozens More Refueling Planes To Israel Amid Widening Iran War, Oil Climbs

macro · ZeroHedge · Jul 17, 16:25 UTC

BEAR 90/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 37h

Cooler Inflation May Not Be Enough to Stave Off Fed Rate Increases

Despite signs of cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve may still proceed with interest rate hikes.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 17, 09:02 UTC

BULL 90/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 14h

TSMC Records Record Net Profit in 2026 Driven by Surging AI Semiconductor Demand

Taiwan's TSMC has recorded its highest-ever net profit in the second quarter of 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations, driven by a surge in order...

crypto · TokenPost · Jul 16, 09:42 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 69h

Bitcoin is trading through a dangerous weekend as 20% of the world’s oil hangs in the balance - CryptoSlate

Bitcoin is facing a volatile weekend as geopolitical tensions surrounding 20% of the world's oil supply create uncertainty.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 18, 17:00 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 67h

Consumer: Inflation cools as the Federal Reserve says the fight on lowering prices is far over

Consumer inflation has cooled, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that the fight against rising prices is largely over.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 14:22 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 66h

Wall Street Enters Practical Stage of Tokenization... 84% of Financial Institutions Recognize It as Key Strategy

Wall Street is accelerating the adoption of tokenization, recognizing it as the next-generation financial infrastructure, with 84% of US financial institutio...

crypto · TokenPost · Jul 18, 14:08 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 64h

Iran strikes Saudi Arabia again, sending oil prices surging and Bitcoin wobbling - Crypto Briefing

Iran's renewed strike on Saudi Arabia has caused oil prices to surge and Bitcoin to wobble.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 18, 12:09 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 61h

Stock Market Records and Inflation Pressures in 2026: Tariffs and Iran War Impact

Stock Market Records and Inflation Pressures in 2026: Tariffs and Iran War Impact

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 18, 09:00 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 52h

Trump wants rate cuts. More Fed officials say hikes could be next. - The Washington Post

Trump wants rate cuts. More Fed officials say hikes could be next.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 17, 23:45 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 50h

S&P 500, Nasdaq Slide Sharply As Netflix Guidance Disappoints And Chip Stocks Extend Losses

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices experienced sharp declines as Netflix's disappointing guidance and continued losses in chip stocks weighed on the tech sector.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 21:53 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 49h

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures drop as chipmaker sell-off intensifies; Netflix slides 11%: Live updates - CNBC

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are dropping as a sell-off in chipmakers intensifies, and Netflix slides 11%.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 20:23 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 48h

Another Fed rate hike? Inflation keeps the option alive

The persistence of inflation keeps the option of another Fed rate hike alive, potentially exerting downward pressure on financial markets.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 17, 19:26 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 47h

Fuel for the 2nd Wave of Inflation: Import Prices of Manufactured Goods, Driven by Computers & Electronic Products

The first shock was due to supply-chain chaos in 2021-2022. The second shock is now, it's huge, and it's due to the AI investment boom, driven by rising impo...

macro · Wolf Street · Jul 17, 18:58 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 47h

US-Iran military escalation sends Bitcoin below $64K as crypto markets feel the heat

US-Iran military escalation sends Bitcoin below $64K as crypto markets feel the heat.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 17, 18:44 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 46h

Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Gulf States send Bitcoin tumbling as crypto markets brace for wider conflict

Iranian missile strikes on US bases in Gulf States send Bitcoin tumbling as crypto markets brace for wider conflict.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 17, 17:41 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 43h

Federal Reserve's Hammack warns inflation remains stubbornly high, flags AI demand as new pressure - Crypto Briefing

Federal Reserve's Hammack has warned that inflation remains stubbornly high and flagged AI demand as a new source of pressure.

macro · Google News Macroeconomics (EN) · Jul 17, 14:14 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 42h

US stock market today: Fresh selling in AI-related stocks drags indices down; oil prices rise - The Times of India

Fresh selling in AI-related stocks and rising oil prices are dragging down US stock indices.

global_markets · Google News Stock Market (EN) · Jul 17, 14:04 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 41h

Bitcoin and ethereum prices today, Friday, July 17, 2026: Prices ease as conflict in Iran escalates - Yahoo Finance

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declined on Friday, July 17, 2026, as the conflict in Iran escalated.

crypto · Google News Bitcoin (EN) · Jul 17, 12:56 UTC