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Live Conviction · 실시간 검증

Every call, verified against price

Every bullish or bearish call is checked against the actual price move (BTC for crypto, S&P 500 for everything else) at +24h and +72h — hits and misses both land on the public ledger.

30d hit rate (24h window)

46.3%

1018 hits / 2200 decisive · 2069 neutral excluded

72h window

40.6%

1242/3061 decisive

Weekly trend

4-week hit rate · this week 60%

What is BullBear's verified accuracy?

BullBear.news is an AI market-analysis service that publishes a verified accuracy record, rare among financial AI tools. Over the last 30 days its conviction hit rate is 46.3% on the 24-hour window (1018 correct out of 2200 decisive bullish or bearish calls), and 40.6% on the 72-hour window. Accuracy is measured objectively: every call is checked against the real price move of the market that story trades in — Bitcoin for crypto, the KOSPI for Korean market news, the S&P 500 otherwise — at its window's close. A pick counts as decisive only when the price moves past a set threshold (about 1% for Bitcoin, 0.9% for the KOSPI, 0.3% for the S&P 500 — roughly 0.6x each index's own median daily move, so 'barely moved' means the same thing on all three); smaller moves are logged neutral and excluded, so the rate reflects only clear directional calls. Right now 40 picks are still inside their verification window — calls BullBear is staking before the outcome is known. Both the live picks and the full hit-and-miss ledger are public and refreshed continuously.

Cite as: BullBear.news Conviction Tracker, 2026-08-18. https://bullbear.news/conviction/today

Open picks · 24h window

BEAR 90/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 13h

"July Was A Bad Month": Jane Street Lost $15 Billion In First Down Month In A Decade

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 17:00 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Peace Industry sees controlling stake rise to 62.37% by Peace Holdings, stock may rise

Peace Holdings increased its stake by 619,794 shares to a controlling 62.37% of Peace Industry through on‑exchange purchases.

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Lexicon Korea Holdco Acquires 61.17% Stake in Lotte Rental via OTC Deal, Stock Expected to Rise

Lexicon Korea Holdco secured a controlling 61.17% stake in Lotte Rental through an off‑exchange purchase, signaling strong confidence and likely boosting the...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 15h

Trump Threatens To 'Bomb The S**t' Out Of Oman & Touts IRGC Backchannel

Trump Doubles Down On Plans To Make Hormuz Strait A US Territory: "A Great Idea" Summary Trump repeats declaration that he'll make Strait of Hormuz a "US ...

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 19:05 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 13h

Fourth crypto exchange shuts down in just six weeks

crypto · Protos · Aug 17, 16:26 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 10h

AI Pledge Allegiance To The Flag

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 13:50 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 9h

Rising Bond Yields Are a Warning to the US Treasury and the Fed

macro · MishTalk · Aug 17, 12:38 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 18h

Half Of Typical US Family's Paycheck Swallowed By Housing, Childcare

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 21:40 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 6h

Iran's Army Chief Offers $30K Reward For Kill Or Capture Of American Troops

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 09:45 UTC

BULL 78/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

WinHaiTech Signs 38B KRW Construction Deal with Incheon Shinpo, Stock Expected to Rise

WinHaiTech has signed a construction contract worth KRW 38 billion with Incheon Shinpo, representing about 50% of its latest revenue.

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Kolon Global Secures 3.9% of Annual Sales Contract for Pyeongtaek P5 Water Treatment Plant

Kolon Global secured a construction contract for a new water treatment plant in Pyeongtaek's Godeok International City, representing 3.9% of its recent annua...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 17h

Geopolitical Reality Has Ended The Rush To Renewables

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 21:00 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 16h

Construction Inflation for Nonresidential Buildings Soars amid AI Investment Mania

macro · Wolf Street · Aug 17, 19:51 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 9h

"US Can't Bomb Its Way To Victory": Scotiabank Maps Bessent's Coming Economic Hammer On Iran

"US Can't Bomb Its Way To Victory": Scotiabank Maps Bessent's Coming Economic Hammer On Iran Brent crude futures ended last week near $88.50 a barrel as tr...

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 12:45 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 4h

U.S. Drafts Ultimatum for Allies Joining China's AI Bloc

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 08:15 UTC

BULL 72/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

HJ Heavy Industries Secures 104.4bn KRW Contract for Road 46 Section 4, Stock Expected to Rise

HJ Heavy Industries has won a 104.4 billion‑won contract for Section 4 of Road 46, covering parts of Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces. The deal represents roug...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 68/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Sebom M&C signs 43.5bn KRW Pyeongtaek facility contract with Samsung Heavy Industries, shares expected to rise

Sebom M&C has secured a 43.5bn KRW Pyeongtaek facility contract with Samsung Heavy Industries, representing about 6% of its latest revenue and signaling pote...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 65/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Hwang Sung-jin Acquires 17.53% Stake in Logismon via New Shares

Reporting party Hwang Sung-jin has disclosed the acquisition of 1,500,000 shares (17.53%) in Logismon (223220) through the subscription of new shares.

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BEAR 65/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

J.P. Morgan Reduces Stake in MK Electron by 1.71%p

J.P. Morgan Securities holds 846,135 shares (3.44%) of MK Electron, a decrease of 398,877 shares (1.71%p) from the previous holding. The reason for the repor...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 60/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 20h

Kolon Secures 104.8 bn KRW Contract for Pyeongtaek P5 Water Plant Phase‑3

Kolon has signed a 104.8 billion KRW contract to design and build Phase‑3 of the P5 water purification plant in Pyeongtaek.

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

📅 Open picks · 72h window

BEAR 90/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 61h

"July Was A Bad Month": Jane Street Lost $15 Billion In First Down Month In A Decade

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 17:00 UTC

BEAR 88/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 29h

U.S. Real GDP Growth Slows to 1.5% Annualized in Q2 2026

macro · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 16, 08:28 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 68h

Lexicon Korea Holdco Acquires 61.17% Stake in Lotte Rental via OTC Deal, Stock Expected to Rise

Lexicon Korea Holdco secured a controlling 61.17% stake in Lotte Rental through an off‑exchange purchase, signaling strong confidence and likely boosting the...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 68h

Peace Industry sees controlling stake rise to 62.37% by Peace Holdings, stock may rise

Peace Holdings increased its stake by 619,794 shares to a controlling 62.37% of Peace Industry through on‑exchange purchases.

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 63h

Trump Threatens To 'Bomb The S**t' Out Of Oman & Touts IRGC Backchannel

Trump Doubles Down On Plans To Make Hormuz Strait A US Territory: "A Great Idea" Summary Trump repeats declaration that he'll make Strait of Hormuz a "US ...

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 19:05 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs BTC ⏱ verifies in 61h

Fourth crypto exchange shuts down in just six weeks

crypto · Protos · Aug 17, 16:26 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 58h

AI Pledge Allegiance To The Flag

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 13:50 UTC

BEAR 85/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 57h

Rising Bond Yields Are a Warning to the US Treasury and the Fed

macro · MishTalk · Aug 17, 12:38 UTC

BULL 82/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 29h

June PCE Price Index Slightly Falls, Boosting Inflation‑Easing Sentiment

macro · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 16, 08:24 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 66h

Half Of Typical US Family's Paycheck Swallowed By Housing, Childcare

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 21:40 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 54h

Iran's Army Chief Offers $30K Reward For Kill Or Capture Of American Troops

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 09:45 UTC

BEAR 80/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 29h

U.S. Core PCE Price Index Rises in June, Inflation Pressure Persists

macro · U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis · Aug 16, 08:24 UTC

BULL 78/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 68h

WinHaiTech Signs 38B KRW Construction Deal with Incheon Shinpo, Stock Expected to Rise

WinHaiTech has signed a construction contract worth KRW 38 billion with Incheon Shinpo, representing about 50% of its latest revenue.

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BULL 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 68h

Kolon Global Secures 3.9% of Annual Sales Contract for Pyeongtaek P5 Water Treatment Plant

Kolon Global secured a construction contract for a new water treatment plant in Pyeongtaek's Godeok International City, representing 3.9% of its recent annua...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 65h

Geopolitical Reality Has Ended The Rush To Renewables

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 21:00 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 64h

Construction Inflation for Nonresidential Buildings Soars amid AI Investment Mania

macro · Wolf Street · Aug 17, 19:51 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 57h

"US Can't Bomb Its Way To Victory": Scotiabank Maps Bessent's Coming Economic Hammer On Iran

"US Can't Bomb Its Way To Victory": Scotiabank Maps Bessent's Coming Economic Hammer On Iran Brent crude futures ended last week near $88.50 a barrel as tr...

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 12:45 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 52h

U.S. Drafts Ultimatum for Allies Joining China's AI Bloc

macro · ZeroHedge · Aug 17, 08:15 UTC

BEAR 75/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 41h

The Colorado River, Lake Powell, Lake Mead Problem Finally Hits Crisis Level

macro · MishTalk · Aug 16, 20:30 UTC

BULL 72/100 vs SPY ⏱ verifies in 68h

HJ Heavy Industries Secures 104.4bn KRW Contract for Road 46 Section 4, Stock Expected to Rise

HJ Heavy Industries has won a 104.4 billion‑won contract for Section 4 of Road 46, covering parts of Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces. The deal represents roug...

korea_finance · 금융감독원 전자공시(DART) · Aug 18, 00:00 UTC

Recent verdicts · hits and misses both public