The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 98.4%, while the probability of a rate hike in July is 8.4%

Signals of a potential diplomatic thaw are nudging risk‑on sentiment across equities and commodities, as investors weigh the prospect of reduced geopolitical volatility against lingering uncertainties. A credible opening from Moscow, coupled with Kyiv’s willingness to engage, eases fears of prolonged supply‑chain disruptions and sanctions escalation, which have underpinned recent defensive positioning. This development dovetails with broader macro themes of easing inflation pressures and a gradual realignment of energy markets, reinforcing expectations for steadier growth in emerging economies dependent on stable trade flows. Consequently, confidence among institutional and retail investors is modestly rebounding, prompting a modest shift toward higher‑yield assets and a reallocation away from safe‑haven currencies. While caution remains, the emerging narrative of dialogue supports a more optimistic risk appetite and could underpin a short‑to‑medium‑term rally in risk‑sensitive sectors.

Signals of a potential diplomatic thaw are nudging risk‑on sentiment across equities and commodities, as investors weigh the prospect of reduced geopolitical volatility against lingering uncertainties. A credible opening from Moscow, coupled with Kyiv’s willingness to engage, eases fears of prolonged supply‑chain disruptions and sanctions escalation, which have underpinned recent defensive positioning. This development dovetails with broader macro themes of easing inflation pressures and a gradual realignment of energy markets, reinforcing expectations for steadier growth in emerging economies dependent on stable trade flows. Consequently, confidence among institutional and retail investors is modestly rebounding, prompting a modest shift toward higher‑yield assets and a reallocation away from safe‑haven currencies. While caution remains, the emerging narrative of dialogue supports a more optimistic risk appetite and could underpin a short‑to‑medium‑term rally in risk‑sensitive sectors.