Macroeconomic policies and OECD policy advice during the COVID-19 pandemic: A retrospective assessment

Prolonged hostilities in Ukraine, underscored by Zelensky’s warning that fighting will likely extend into winter, keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated across global markets. Even as the Witkoff‑Kushner delegation returns with a cautiously optimistic read on Putin’s stance, the mixed signals reinforce uncertainty, prompting investors to weigh potential de‑escalation against the entrenched likelihood of continued conflict. Energy commodities may retain upside from supply concerns, while defense equities could see modest support, yet broader equity indices are likely to face pressure as risk‑off sentiment resurfaces. The scenario dovetails with macro themes of persistent inflation, strained supply chains, and central banks maintaining tighter monetary stances, all of which dampen growth outlooks. Consequently, confidence among risk‑tolerant investors wanes, steering capital toward safe‑haven assets and curbing appetite for higher‑yielding but volatile positions.

Prolonged hostilities in Ukraine, underscored by Zelensky’s warning that fighting will likely extend into winter, keep geopolitical risk premiums elevated across global markets. Even as the Witkoff‑Kushner delegation returns with a cautiously optimistic read on Putin’s stance, the mixed signals reinforce uncertainty, prompting investors to weigh potential de‑escalation against the entrenched likelihood of continued conflict. Energy commodities may retain upside from supply concerns, while defense equities could see modest support, yet broader equity indices are likely to face pressure as risk‑off sentiment resurfaces. The scenario dovetails with macro themes of persistent inflation, strained supply chains, and central banks maintaining tighter monetary stances, all of which dampen growth outlooks. Consequently, confidence among risk‑tolerant investors wanes, steering capital toward safe‑haven assets and curbing appetite for higher‑yielding but volatile positions.